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Ack, yes. It feels like this current situation is "paying the piper" for the historic (and in my opinion, necessary) fiscal and monetary stimulus from covid. What I think people take for granted is that if the Fed and the US government had done what they did during the Great Depression, which was to contract rather than expand, then the situation today could be completely different 2.5 years out from covid shutdown. Instead of full employment and high inflation, we could've been in an extremely dire situation with mass poverty and hunger!

In a less-extreme example, we could've also repeated the Obama admin mistake of simply not stimulating enough, thus leading to a protracted recovery.

I think the Fed certainly could've started acting last year around this time, and missed some early cues to reverse course. But relative to the above two mistakes, this is actually my preferred scenario. Well, for now - ask me again in a year or two 😆

Also in the Fed's defense, they didn't have any way of knowing Russia would attack in Feb, sending food and energy spiraling and exacerbating an already-difficult macro backdrop...

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