Welcome to the +43 new subscribers this week and +308 over the last 90 days.
Newcomers should know that we share actionable market insights and model portfolio updates so YOU can make better investment decisions and get an inside view at Tuttle Ventures.
We started Tuttle Ventures in order to help people find lasting financial security.
When the market turns as volatile and confusing as it has over the past year, even the most patient investors may come to question the wisdom of the plan they’ve been following.
That’s why I write every week.
We have the knowledge, skills and experience to make sure you and your loved ones are on the right track.
As we continue to grow, our core investment philosophy guides every decision we make.
The right compound of Vision, Courage and Patience leads to successful investing.
Without a vision, an investor will fall victim to following the heard.
Without courage, position size will be insignificant to portfolio returns.
Without patience, portfolio turnover will slowly erode with every passing fad.
The average investor, by human nature, lacks all three.
Paying subscribers should be pleased to learn that there were no portfolio changes this week (here’s the latest link to the model portfolio).
Vision
We don’t have a crystal ball and can’t predict the future.
However we can look at clear indicators to give us information about the current situation and the likelihood of something happening in the future.
For example, a doctor can look at your heartrate, cholesterol levels, weight, past medical history and get a reasonable estimate of your chance of a heart attack. (The risk runs high on my mom’s side of the family).
We are doing the same to get our vision of the market.
We view the current vitals in geopolitics, energy, inflation, interest rates, currencies, econometrics and earnings and see a difficult path forward.
Price discovery was buried due to free money. The bull market has turned.
How are you positioned for the most widely predicted, written about, analyzed, and forecasted recession in history?
If you huddle for cash - you will slowly learn that inflation is a tax.
It’s time to get serious about what to expect over the next year.
“Bonds are not the place to be these days.
Fixed-income investors face a bleak future.”
— Warren Buffett (March 2021)
We believe the chance that the US is headed to Japan of the 1990’s and a lost decade is high.
We do not want this to happen but we are prepared for market selloffs, like last Friday, when DIA 0.00 dropped 3.03% to close the week.
We will continue to share signals from Chicago Fed’s ANFCI and ECRI Weekly Leading Index over the coming week to help us navigate the future.
Courage
We continue to have an overweight to cash and diversifying strategies in managed futures.
Courage can be best defined by portfolio position size.
We have done the work to size this right.
Remember, managed futures strategies generate their returns by taking long or short positions in a variety of global markets, from stocks and bonds to commodities and currencies.
This is not a large market and is not considered an asset class of its own.
In principle, these are simple trend following strategies that trade within systematic rules and are implemented with an active discretionary risk manager.
One of the biggest features of managed futures, often overlooked, is the ability to be short duration.
For those curious, you can learn the ins and outs of the complex but vital derivatives marketplace, where participants transfer risk and capture opportunities.
Learn more at https://www.futuresfundamentals.org/
You could also read from our earlier newsletters about risk transfer markets and our experience here.
Patience
Having patience in investing doesn’t mean you just sit around and wait.
It means waiting with the right attitude- without fighting constant fear of missing out.
As bear markets get older, the bear market rallies get larger.
Be patient.
Final Word
Thank you for reading and I am grateful and humbled to be able to learn, grow and invest alongside you at Tuttle Ventures. Vision, Courage and Patience leads to successful investing.
Don’t forget to follow Tuttle Ventures on Twitter, LinkedIn or Instagram.
Check out the website or some other work here.
Best,
Darin Tuttle, CFA
NOTE - This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. I make no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or reasonableness of the information contained in this report. Any assumptions, opinions and estimates expressed in this report constitute my judgment as of the date thereof and is subject to change without notice. Any projections contained in the report are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions. There is no guarantee that projected outcomes will be achieved. Unless there is a signed Investment Management or Financial Planning Agreement by both parties, Tuttle Ventures is not acting as your financial advisor or in any fiduciary capacity.