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• Market Commentary

• Portfolio Updates

• New Holding

• Reserving Judgements

• Dry Powder is Gold Dust

• Final Word

Market Commentary

We are all too familiar with the golden rule:

“If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all.”

We are defying the golden rule, pushing through the good, bad and ugly to write this week and put market activity in historical context:

• The S&P 500 ended the week down -5.8%, the biggest plunge since March 2020.

• This is the second worst start to the year since 1932.

• On Thursday, more than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined, which is the 5th time in the past 7 days.

This is the most overwhelming display of selling in recent history.

Portfolio Updates

Current Portfolio Holdings as of 6/17/2022:

The Fundamental Value Portfolio was not immune, also down -3.7% this week.

Despite our bear market call and our top holding being the market short, $SH (+3.1% last five days), the pressure to the downside was significant for $OLN (-18.9% last five days) and $FSM (-9.7% last five days).

While the pain is acute, the silver lining with Olin Corporation is that our sell timing was proactive and we did avoid some of the downside by selling 50% on May 29th, taking cues from Scott Ferguson of Sachem Head Capital Management. It appears he may of had some knowledge beforehand of the epoxy factory shutdowns due to cost pressures above marginal break-even.

We continue to actively manage downside risk.

New Holding