Who Advises your Advisor?
Earnings Season, Active is winning, and more!
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Let’s revisit TV’s core portfolio holdings and performance as of 4/29/2022:
Big Wins from Earnings
A great way to break a selloff is to post great earnings and positive news.
$V and $OLN both had positive weeks after earnings- and I’d like to highlight $OLN’s:
Olin Corporation, founded in 1892, is an American manufacturer of ammunition, chlorine, and sodium hydroxide.
$OLN was up +7.30% over the last week, recording strong financials and a big announcement that caught the market’s attention.
Olin and Plug Power announced they are partnering together with a plan to produce “Green Hydrogen” est. at 15 Ton Per Day to Serve North America by 2023.
Bet you didn't have "Green Hydrogen" on your 2022 bingo card. 😉
I trust CEO Scott Sutton’s leadership on this one. He is the real deal. An old school CEO who has a vision for this company and disciplined accounting. (A rare combo these days).
Based on our analyst estimates, Olin could absorb demand shortfalls, running their entire global chemical assets portfolio at 50% utilization rates for a whole year and still deliver close to $2 billion of EBITDA.
We will continue to follow the company closely.
Even Elon Gets it!
Elon gets it. Active managers will do well in 2022.
Let me be clear- I do not believe that any one investor can consistently beat the market forever. However, I am running a concentrated fundamental actively managed portfolio because the market environment pushed me here. I felt compelled to do it.
The pendulum swung too far- passive indexing was put as a pedestal over profits. I saw the writing on the wall and put myself in a position to gain an advantage.
Don’t worry, in the future- it’s my full intention to go back to passive indexing before the next regime change. That time is not now.
Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals talk about logistics
More clients are asking questions about our selected systematic global macro funds and managed futures in general.
I’m confident in this strategy based on my own personal experience.
When I was an operations analyst at Goldman Sachs, I got to be the “financial plumber” of these complex institutional markets. I saw fortune’s made and blow up firsthand.
It was my job to onboard futures traders and prime brokerage clients to the different exchanges (CME, CBOE, ICE, etc.).
This job was not glamourous.
When something broke, it was my team’s job to fix it. High stress levels, tight deadlines and demanding stakeholders.
We would spend hours setting up electronic trading platforms, validating FIX protocol and setting risk parameters in Bloomberg.
From that unique perspective, I gained a great appreciation of the managed futures market as a RISK TRANSFER market. Read more from CME’s whitepaper on the topic here.
Hedgers and speculators trade side by side with positive sum outcomes. The primary goal of many participants is to hedge downside risk. This creates opportunity.
It is important to understand that as the liquidity plug is pulled, having a market to transfer risk is vital and allows for sophisticated risk managers to take advantage of the rollover in Fed policy.
We continue to be bullish on the strategy , particularly in rising interest rate environments.
Have you ever wondered who Advises your Financial Advisor?
Some of you know that since January, I am now advising other financial advisors. In partnership with Investment Design Management, we help design retirement outcomes for individuals, trust officers and independent investment advisors.
This is independent from my work at Tuttle Ventures.
Understanding the identities that financial advisors construct for themselves is central to effect innovation within a changing market environment. If you have a current financial advisor, ask who he listens to for financial advise- it may surprise you.
I am humbled to be able to share our insights across a broad spectrum of investors.
Thank you for reading and I am grateful and humbled to be able to learn, grow and invest alongside you at Tuttle Ventures.
Don’t forget to follow Tuttle Ventures on Twitter, LinkedIn or Instagram.
Check out the website or some other work here.
Best,
Darin Tuttle, CFA
NOTE - This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. I make no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or reasonableness of the information contained in this report. Any assumptions, opinions and estimates expressed in this report constitute my judgment as of the date thereof and is subject to change without notice. Any projections contained in the report are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions. There is no guarantee that projected outcomes will be achieved. Unless there is a signed Investment Management or Financial Planning Agreement by both parties, Tuttle Ventures is not acting as your financial advisor or in any fiduciary capacity.