How to win the long game

Peace of mind for you and your family = not modeled in most spreadsheets.

Year to Date Total Return performance before fees, taxes:

Peace of mind for you and your family = not modeled in most spreadsheets.

Over the last month, the S&P 500 has sold off some (-3.50%), but the current value of the Fundamental Value Portfolio has stayed resistant.

This is our primary client strategy and we continue to think that buying good companies at fair prices can offset market fear.

Look whats’s worked thus far in 2021: Steel companies, anything auto-related, oil exploration, home improvement plays, aluminum, heavy construction.

What has worked in the past may not work in the future.

Clear thinking requires courage rather than intelligence.

Today, I think the portfolio is somewhat top heavy.

3 names, Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC) +93%, AerCap Holdings (AER) +52%, and Public Storage (PSA) +35% have contributed 70% of YTD outperformance.

Sizing these positions correctly is where I think a disciplined investment management process really helps. I think its time to rotate out of the “airlease chicken” that we had played and won against the Coronavirus shutdown.

I think now is the best time to move on to new innovations in a semiconductor company.

There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future holds, but I think that the real information is found in the emotional market reaction to headlines (like a new variant or a government shutdown).

I’ve recognized that while most are talking about inflation now, they are not discussing who has the capacity to push higher prices to customers. I think Chipmakers still have enormous pricing power.

Highlighting these second-order effects makes it clear to me that there are still unique opportunities for companies who:

1) generate strong cash flows

2) pay out dividends

3) buy back shares

With a stock market still near all-time highs and investors piling into stocks with little to support to them fundamentally, solid, old-fashioned companies with reliable earnings and dividends might turn into safe havens before too long.

At Tuttle Ventures, we are making new high conviction investments and will continue to share and build in public.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here. 

Click on the link to schedule your consultation today

—Best,

Darin Tuttle

Founder

Tuttle Ventures, LLC